The Last Candle

(San Francisco pictures are here. I spent enough time on ‘em, so I’m gonna plug ‘em. And now, back to regular, er, blogging content.

Anyone who’s spent any amount of attention to the news lately — or if, like me, you don’t read the news at all but spend a lot of time reading science blogs and science-oriented sites — is probably aware of the recent big controversy about autism and vaccines.

If not, here’s the basic dish: an outspoken lobby of parents, naturalists, evangelists and outright kooks has hypothesized that vaccines are at least partially responsible for causing autistic spectrum disorders, or ASDs. Actually, hypothesize is probably too tame a word — wholly charged and convicted is more appropriate, as the lobby is completely convinced one way or another that vaccines are, without a doubt, the root cause of ASDs.

(This guesswork regarding the autism-vaccine is not necessarily the problem — good scienctific methodology requires beginning with a hypothesis, so you have to start somewhere. The problem is when support for the hypothesis is continued and prolonged after trials and experimentation has proven, through the best-available methods and evidence, that the hypothesis is wrong. Later on in this post I’ll direct the reader towards posts that dissect the hypothesis and present the evidence, but I wanted to just wanted to make the point that supposing a cause and effect is in itself not necessarily bad. The problem is that this case has gone way beyond the disproven point.)

The anti-vaccine movement is composed in part by parents. Last year, a large group of families with autistic children filed roughly 5,000 suits en masse to the government’s Vaccine Court. Hearings of individual cases began back in June 2007 and continue grinding away slowly today. A ruling in favor of the plantiff — an admittance that an administered vaccine caused harmful reactions in the treated patient — results in monetary compensation. While individual cases are important for medicine and proven compensation, the stakes for cases within the Autism Omnibus are much more important: rulings could not only set a precedence for other similar cases, but could affect how vaccines are administered to children.

And vaccines are — duh — important. Cases of polio and measles, two diseases that have established, effective vaccines available, have rebounded in African and Japanese populations, respectively, after families refused vaccines for various reasons. Continued vaccinations could lead to the complete containment and eradication of these afflictions, just like the reduction and removal of smallpox via vaccines in the 1970s.

The recent outcry in the media and anti-vaccine groups was about one of those Autism Omnibus hearings: a special master overseeing the case decided that 9-year-old Hannah Poling, who was diagnosed with autism early in her life, was indeed affected harmfully by an administered vaccine. The anti-vaccine lobby and many media outlets, seeing red meat (but landing a classic case of post hoc ergo propter hoc instead), is now put this case on a pedestal as definite evidence that vaccines are indeed responsible for causing ASDs.

In actuality, the studies and evidence for the vaccine-autism connection — that is, the studies have revealed that the connection is false. And this is where I’m going to let the scientists take over.

The science blogging community has been combatting what they’ve deemed the “Mercury Militia” (the mercury moniker comes from the anti-vaccines lobby that thimerosal, an ethyl-mercury-containing additive to vaccines that has since been removed nearly all vaccines, was the particular component causing the autism) for many months, far before the Autism Omnibus hearing began in June 2007. Most of the bloggers commenting on this issue (at least, the bloggers I’ve been reading) are MDs or PhDs, or both, and all of them are critical thinkers, which is the very least you could ask for when dealing with such a sensitive issue.

I’m no scientishian, but I, um, read blogs — a lot of blogs, actually. Not only can I read (and write!) words larger than a few syllables, but I can make one smart-looking unlinked list in HTML. So, putting all of my intellectual abilites to the utmost test, here’s a list of a few blog posts from favorite science and medicine blogs about the autism-vaccine firestorm that’s cooking hot these days.

• Orac, at his indispensable and irreplaceable blog Respectful Insolence, has been traumatizing the anti-vaccine crowd with his logic-, evidence-, and derision-bat for months and months. He’s been very much on top of the debate, and recently created an aggregate link-post for his own blog. Orac orients the audience towards a lot of good posts with his single post, so begin digging with this one.


• After his link-love blog entry, Orac followed up with another autism-vaccine-based that summarizes the whole argument from both sides. It’s a lengthy argument, which made a lengthy post, but it’s a great crash course in the issue at hand.


• Skeptico links to the same Orac aggregate-post that I did above, but he (she?) offers some additional commentary in his typically cogent, well-articulated and frank manner.


• Dr. Steven Novella is not only the ringleader of the terrific Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe podcast, but he also runs a really tight ship on his Neurologica Blog. Earlier posts by Dr. Novella were linked through by Orac (again! He covers everything!), but the doctor has since lambasted presidential-hopeful and pseudo-scientific nitwit John McCain for recent autism-vaccine connection comments.

I don’t read political blogs anymore because fighting that hydra didn’t bestow satisfying benefit: the fight would go on and on, and whether or not I disengaged myself from any particular debate early or if I followed through the entire ordeal, the knowledge or information stores gained felt worthless once the next battle began. The tectonic plates of politics are largely moved by emotions and fallacies, and less by the straight-forward presentation of evidence or sound arguments. Reading up on that kind of news of the day just made me irritable and worthlessly argumentative with no personal payoff.

But now I read a whole heap o’ science blogs, and although the fight still exists (see: all of the above post), after the smart dust has cleared, I possess not only a greater knowledge of real-world workings, all of which are more amazing by the day, but my critical-thinking faculties are a bit sharper. In a debate I’d be more likely to trip over the podium than actually put forth a serious contention, but my toolkit of moves for fightin’ within the argument arena is slowly developing into a formidable opponent.

The collection and support of evidence and the methodlogy of critical thinking is a lengthy, time-consuming and dauting journey, but progress is noticable, and the proper practice makes the weak spots in the opposition as evident as pink skin showing between two plates of armor. But anyways, go read.

A hearty congratulations to Rod Anderson — my Dad — for his election to a seat on the Chelsea City Council.

I usually don’t like to talk about family or personal business around the site, and I particularly don’t like to talk about politics (which is a more recent change), but this election is both good and community-wide news. And over the months, as I’ve watched my Dad put together his campaign — my rare contribution was the photographs on the Chelsea Citizens for Accountability site — I’ve found local politics is actually pretty interesting, being steeped in, y’know, thoughtful debate and a conversation on issues, instead of the national electorate miasma that’s rife with a media-bolstered persistent cacophony of mudslinging, misconception, grinding gears and sleight of hand…

Sorry. That’s why I don’t like to talk about politics.

But Chelsea’s a nice little city, and I think Mr. Anderson’s going do a right fine job. I might even learn a thing or two about the city during future Friday night dinners at the folks’ house.

An editorial published today at National Review Online in regards to the recent shenangians by Iran to take hostage (and release, as of today) 15 British soliders is very agreeable on its statements, but also sobering and a little distressing.

By committing an act of war, Iran has simultaneously made itself look peaceful and made the West look impotent. <p/> […] <p/> The way the crisis played out will have serious consequences in the Middle East. Iran proved that it is the region’s dominant power. Could any other country have attempted this and gotten away with it? Syria? Saudi Arabia? Egypt? Surely not. Britain, meanwhile, reinforced Iran’s view of the West as a decadent society that does not respond effectively to provocations and need not be feared.

Sigh. <p/> In happier, T*LC news, I’m going to be playing around with a new content management system, probably both WordPress and Movable Type, for the next week or so. My plan is to get an interim blog going on the new CMS with a temporary art design. The temporary design will be in place until I get the good artwork figured out, at which time I’ll roll out the design I intend to have for the next couple of years. <p/> Additionally, moving along with a new management system early will allow me to ditch Bloxsom, my current CMS, which has proven to make blogging an incredible chore. Moving to a strictly server-based service with a large community for support such as WordPress should make posting new stuff easier and more enjoyable, as well as having a more full-featured blog, which in the end will hopefully result in an increase of posts. But no promises!

This Boston-Aqua Teen Hunger Force business has got to be one of the most interesting news stories I’ve ever seen (yes, I am a simple man). If you haven’t been following this court comedy, dig the Reuters article, or a more bloggy entry at Boing Boing. Wikipedia, of course, has a good summary of the incident and case to date as well as a general outline of the show itself. <p/> From the Reuters story:

Authorities charged two men on Thursday with planting battery-powered signs promoting an animated cartoon that were mistaken for bombs and caused Boston’s biggest security scare since the September 11 attacks. <p/> Investigators were also probing the role of U.S. media group Turner Broadcasting, which has apologized for Wednesday’s day-long security scare triggered by a “guerrilla” marketing campaign for one of its cartoon shows. <p/> Sean Stevens, 28, and Peter Berdovsky, 27, were released on a $2,500 bond each after pleading not guilty in state court to charges of placing a hoax device and disorderly conduct.

The AP has several photos of these devices; here’s one showing the sign and embossed character unlit. (Warning: cartoony poised middle-finger alert.) <p/> Due to these devices — flat, large, LED-fitted sign that showed one of two of the show’s Mooninite characters being, er, flip-pant — Boston was “shut down” for a day while the authorities scoured and cleaned out the 38 different advertisements. The dudes responsible were eventually arrested and face a couple of charges come March, when the next court date arrives. <p/> On one hand, I don’t blame Boston for their reaction — something mysterious and consistent was going on, and they had it thoroughly — thoroughly, to the tune of $750,000 — investigated. The LED signs were affixed to government buildings and bridge vertices (as well as outside of comic book shops, etc.), so there was some suspicion that a dangerous plot was at hand. There was a lead, a pattern, and a fear for another 9/11; the authorities reacted accordingly. <p/> Needless to say, Boston in a panic in the amusing part of this story — quite the opposite. It must have been fairly terrifying to be in the city while these events were taking unfolding. <p/> The amusing part is the aftermath of the 1/31/07 incident, a show in at least two acts so far. <p/> Act I: The Boston government’s reaction. Mayor Thomas Menino has suggested that the city might sue Turner Broadcasting, the executive company of Cartoon Network. (In a recent development, Turner has offered to pay the city $1 for any offenses.) Governer Deval Patrick said, “It’s a hoax — and it’s not funny.” Steven and Berdovsky, the indicident’s two perps, spent a night in jail, and can look forward to more court dates. <p/> This is bogus work. The devices may have looked out of place, but there was apparently little evidence that they were harmful. The city evidently couldn’t tell that until they had rounded up a couple dozen of the passive devices. You see one device — bomb, or not? Maybe the next one is a bomb? Okay, how about the next? Next one? Next? Next? Repeat about 35 more times. Whew, no bombs. A little bit silly. <p/> Besides, why was Boston the only city to react this violently when the ad campaign had been executed in ten other cities for more than two weeks? According to the Reuters article, Portland and Chicago investigated the out of place ads but didn’t go nuts over them. Strange. Again, I commend Boston for their initial response, but somewhere along the line, someone needed to get a clue. The city hasn’t reached that point yet, evidently. <p/> As for these signs being part of a “hoax” — which is semantically incorrect on its face — Mark at Boing Boing has an agreeable commentary regarding that facet. I wouldn’t reprimand the city as far as Frauenfelder would (“The people of Boston should be clamoring for the resignation of the mayor”), but I am in union that the city should nurse their own wounds quietly instead of stabbing someone else with the now-slick knife. <p/> Act II: The perpetrators, Sean Stevens and Peter Berdovsky. These guys are a couple of jackasses, no doubt: anyone who giggles while being charged in court has way, way too much nerve. I haven’t seen any accounts of them apologizing either, which may not have completely accurate given that the city was responsible for the reaction, but a sorry would have at least been graceful. <p/> Instead, during their press conference after the charging, the two men chose to discuss…hairstyles. <p/> At least they’re taking the whole arraignment thing pretty well. I guess when you’ve indirectly caused a city to constrict and cause $750,000 of labor and an untold amount of panic, well, you’ve got to keep sane somehow. Still, the dudes could still use a night in the cooler to shrink those cojones. <p/> And somewhere the Cartoon Network/Turner execs are sitting in leather chairs, blinking at each other, all thinking the same thing: “This was the greatest advertising campaign ever.”

Post-election, I am, more or less, in agreement with Wretchard of The Belmont Club in a recent post of his.

The coming months will be ones of great opportunity. Reality provides one very powerful service: it shows what does not work. And it provides clues to what will work. A lot of the effort should consist of thinking out approaches from first principles. One obvious effect will be to shrivel the deadwood — intellectual and otherwise — out of the way. We are all free in a way that we couldn’t otherwise be without today. That’s a good thing and after I finish up for the day, I’m going to drink a beer or maybe have one of Jimmy Joe Shank’s mayo and peanut butter sandwiches.

That last bit is especially poignant (I’m eating oatmeal cookies, instead). Jimmy Joe Shank sounds like a guy I wouldn’t want to me in a dimly-lit pizza joint, though. <p/> Here’s my deal. I’m glad that Bush, Republicans and fellow hawks won the 2004 election. Besides the recent stumbles, the War overseas is a very important thing that began far too long ago. The fortunate resolution of the 2004 election cemented our involvement, and we’ll be working the tough — and good — fight for many years. <p/> And being a Republican (but not quite a Conservative), I had hoped that we’d this election too, but considering that the right has done very little in the way of be a compelling party in any respect, I’m not surprised that the Democrats now have control of Congress. The people have spoken, and that’s perfect. Another day for the great republic. <p/> However, if the Democrats — steered by the Left — decide to pull out of the War on Terror, I hope it costs them the next ten elections. The day after the mass redeployment begins is the first day of the countdown to the next 9/11; optimism is thinking that the ticking down didn’t start today. <p/> So, onward and upwards. I’ll even take a little bit sideways if it means the Republicans will gather themselves for the future. Things shouldn’t be so bad. <p/> Except for you lesser-meat jerks who voted against the Michigan dove hunting season. I hope you all die.